The US's Patriot missile shield deployed in Poland. (photo: AFP)

 

Russia and the US signed the INF in 1987 to ban possessing, testing, and or deploying ground-launched cruise or ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 km. The treaty has been a tool to control nuclear weapons and avoid another arms race.

The INF and other treaties, such as the Antiballistic missile Treaty (ABM), and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that the US and Russia signed in 1991, 1993, 2010, have prevented a nuclear confrontation between the US and Russia, ensured relative stability in Europe for 30 years, and created hope for a nuclear free world.

Trump’s scheme

Trump’s plan to withdraw from the treaty comes as no surprise. The US says Russia has already violated the treaty. The Obama administration accused Russia of breaching the agreement many times.

Analysts say Trump is against all international agreements he didn’t negotiate himself. After its withdrawal, the US plans to deploy an upgraded version of the ground-launched Tomahawk. The US has Tomahawk missiles on its navy vessels and submarines.

Since 1987, China has modernized its army, with much of its investment in missiles. Top American military officials say that if China was a signatory of the INF, about 95% of its cruise and ballistic missiles would violate the treaty. Some of its missiles have a range of 15,000km, covering all the US territory. Republican Senator Tom Cotton said China is one of the main reasons for the US to withdraw from the treaty with Russia. President Trump on Monday said his decision stemmed from a necessity to respond to China’s nuclear development.

Trump announced his plan while his national security advisor John Bolton was in Russia. It’s possible Trump’s move was intended to force Moscow to promise not to violate the INF before Trump-Putin summit.

What is the next move?

Since Trumps announcement to withdraw from the INF, many are worried that the US will not join START-3, which will expire in 2021. Former President Obama called START-3 a diplomatic triumph, but President Trump says START-3 favors Moscow rather than Washington.

The US pulled out of the ABM in 2001. If it officially withdraws from the INF, after START expires in 2021, the nuclear powers will not be bound by any limitation, raising the risk of a new nuclear confrontation.

Many are saying the US should reconsider withdrawing from the INF and hope a Trump-Putin summit will resolve differences and ensure global stability.