On Tuesday the median forecast calls for inflation-adjusted real GDP growth of 2.8% this year, down from the March’s estimate of 2.9%. However, panelists also increased their forecast for nonfarm payroll growth. The survey revealed that 57% of panelists believe risks to real GDP growth in 2018 are weighted to the downside, and nearly 71% believe the risks to inflation are weighted up. Half of the panel expects the next recession to occur sometime between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020.