CEO of HSBC Vietnam Tim Evans forecast GDP growth would be in the range of 5-5.5 percent, depending on the speed and effectiveness of the vaccination rollout, re-opening of the economy and recovery and resumption of major export markets. But growth could only reach 3.5-4 percent if the vaccination program is not quick enough and lockdown and social distancing drag on, there will be more of an adverse impact to the economy and increased pressure on supply chains, he said. In any scenario, the economy needs to be reopened and implemented cautiously and methodically according to the roadmap, according to Evans.

Electronic circuit board testing line at a South Korean enterprise in Yen Phong industrial park. (Illustration photo: VNA)

Consumption will recover strongly as soon as the pandemic subsides because of the State Bank of Vietnam’s reform solutions to stimulate the economy. When the economy reopens, orders will bounce back and FDI will also recover. The CEO of HSBC Vietnam said Vietnam remains an attractive destination for investors in the medium term, adding that Vietnam's strong fundamentals will help investors hedge against short-term volatility due to COVID-19.

In the long-term, "strong foreign currency reserves coupled with a stable currency, inflation being under-control, continued strong FDI inflows with an emphasis on the manufacturing sector all position Vietnam will for the future." So Vietnam's GDP is forecast to grow 6.8% in 2022, Evans said.