Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, right, with Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of Total (AFP/file photo)

The fate of the Iran nuclear deal after the US’s withdrawal has had the public concerned in recent days. Iran recently affirmed its commitment to the deal provided that European countries support it. Meanwhile, the US is urging Britain, France, and Germany to support its decision and has threatened to impose sanctions on them if they continue to cooperate with Iran. 

Continued diplomatic efforts to save the deal

Following the US’s withdrawal, the remaining signatories have pursued negotiations. At their meeting in Bulgaria on Wednesday, leaders of 28 EU countries agreed to maintain the deal signed with Iran in 2015. They pledged to support JCPOA if Iran respects it, maintain economic cooperation with Iran and protect European enterprises from negative effects of the US decision and its sanctions on Iran. On a day earlier, the EU launched a 9-point economic plan to continue the nuclear deal and economic cooperation with Iran to ensure Iran’s trade of oil and gas products and access to the international financial market. This is the first time in years that the EU has reached consensus on a major international security issue.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit Russia and hold talks with President Vladimir Putin on Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Russia in the next few days. President Putin will meet Mr. Yukiya Amano, Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Sochi. China  said it’s ready to cooperate with Russia to maintain the Iran nuclear deal.

During his recent trips to China, Russia, and Belgium, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif sought support from the deal’s signatories..

Challenges

Europe is now stuck between the US and Iran. Iran has been a major trade partner of Europe for years while the US is Europe’s most important ally and the world’s only super power. Last year, the EU’s exports to Iran totaled 13 billion USD, up 66% since 2015. Airbus signed a contract worth 12 billion USD in Iran and Total Oil Group invested more than 3 billion USD in Iran.

The US and the EU share similarities of ideology, economics, security, and interests. Now Europe must balance keeping Iran in the nuclear deal and maintaining a strong alliance with the US.

It’s not easy for any country to ignore US sanctions because of the US’s domination of global finance, particularly the SWIFT inter-bank system.

The Iran nuclear deal may continue but for how long depends on the EU who will have reconsider their alliance with the US.