(VOVworld)- The cease fire agreement initiated by Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko, the first step of his 14-point peace plan, expires on Friday, but,  the situation in Ukraine remains tense and unstable.

The day after the government and the insurgents agreed to a cease fire, separatists shot down a Ukrainian army helicopter killing 9 people. Earlier, exchanges of gunfire occurred in several of Ukraine’s eastern cities.

While the insurgents accused Kiev of launching new attacks, the Ukrainian President blamed the insurgents for not putting down their weapons and threatened to withdraw the cease fire agreement and launch an all-out anti-terrorism campaign in eastern Ukraine. It would seem President Poroshenko’s 14-point peace plan has no chance of being realized.

Ideological fight

Though Poroshenko’s peace plan contains many positive points including a commitment to decentralize power in Ukraine, analysts say the plan is untenable for several reasons.

The crisis in Ukraine is a fight between supporters of Russia and supporters of the West. The instability in Ukraine was provoked by a refusal to negotiate on EU membership. Now, it’s largely a battle between the US and Russia. Ukraine’s future depends on the way Russia and the US will resolve the confrontation. Russia is urging the US to press Kiev to halt its military actions and hold direct dialogues with separatists. The US is demanding that Russia stop helping the separatists. Russia says Ukraine is oppressing its Russian people. The US says Kiev authority is just trying to maintain law and order.

Dispute become worse

Ukraine is now being dominated by the two super powers and can’t decide its future by itself. That’s why the President’s plan, which excludes dialogue and is more of an ultimatum, has been rejected by the insurgents.

Ukraine is scheduled to sign an economic alliance deal with the European Union on Friday showing its commitment to institutional reforms. This alliance has been opposed by the federalization supporters and would sharpen the dispute. The Kiev government’s plan for stabilizing the country is likely to be destroyed by any agreement with the European Union.

Disappointment with the new President is one of the reasons for the failure of the peace plan. People protested outside the Russian Embassy in Kiev after a military aircraft was shot down by the separatists. Ukrainians are now sceptical about the promise to restore order and peace that Poroshenko made during his campaign.

Goodwill needed

The international community is hoping the violence will end and the parties sit down and negotiate a solution. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied any plan to intervene militarily in Ukraine, but it remains a question whether this is a sign of goodwill or just a delaying move prior to the EU summit on June 22, when the US and the West will consider new economic sanctions against Russia. The US praised Moscow’s decision but continued to threaten more sanctions if Russia insists on intervening in Ukraine. Right now, peace in Ukraine remains a fragile hope.