Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth forecast at over 6%: CIEM (Photo: congthuong.vn)

Launched by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) at a workshop on Monday, the report shows that Vietnam overcame numerous difficulties to make a strong recovery in the second half of 2023.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 5.05% last year, 1.45 percentage points lower that the set target of 6.5% but it improved quarter after quarter.

Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of the General Research Department of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said: “We map out two scenarios of GDP growth in 2024: 6.13% in the normal scenario and nearly 6.5% in a more positive scenario. The average inflation in scenario one is nearly 4%, and if we can do better along with economic institutional reform and increased labor productivity, inflation could be only 3.77%. We forecast a positive export growth this year and trade surplus is expected but may not be as large as in 2023.”

The report recommends that policy priorities focus on restoring economic growth by consolidating the country’s microeconomic foundation and reforming the economic institutional system to become more friendly to innovation and the environment while effectively handling risks in a fluctuating world economy.