It has been one year since waves of unrest demanding regime change began in North Africa and the Middle East. First triggered in Tunisia, where it was dubbed the ”Arab Spring”, the tsunami of protest spread to Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Syria. The region has been rocked by violence, regional economies have stagnated and power struggles continue.

Nobody imagined that after a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouaziz, set himself on fire to protest against his humiliation by local authorities, a wave of unrest would inundate the region. Bouaziz’s act of desperation resonated immediately with others in his home town of Sidi Bouzid. They marched in the streets to protest economic hardships and rising unemployment. Media in Tunisia and abroad praised the uprising and aroused the public. On December 30^th 2010, the Nessma TV channel aired reports on the protests and held a debate on the need to effect democratic changes. The ensuing protests became more violent with protesters attacking government security forces. The social and political situation in Tunisia deteriorated rapidly eventually forcing President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to end his 23 years in power and seek safety overseas. Mr. Abidine’s departure provoked demonstrations demanding democracy and regime change in other countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Ultimately, Libyan leader Muammar Gadafi was deposed and killed by anti government forces backed by NATO. In Syria, President Bashar Al Assad is struggling to retain power in the face of increasingly violent protests and growing pressure from overseas. The opposition is following the example of Libya hoping to attract support and intervention by the West. The Arab League and Western nations are pressing President Al Assad by temporarily suspending Syria’s membership in the League and imposing economic sanctions. In other countries including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Morocco and Algeria, uprisings are developing. Iran is being subjected to increasing outside pressures. All this has altered the regional landscape dramatically forcing regional leaders to find a way to secure their position or leave office safely. But will these changes result in the new life people are hoping for? The answer is unclear. The Arab Spring has opened a new era of change and awakened radical Islamists throughout North Africa and the Middle East. In Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and Libya, where the political institutions have been changed, new governments are dealing with stagnant economies, divisions in society and fierce power struggles. The Tunisian economy, which grew 5% annually for the past 20 years, has contracted sharply due to the instability and local people are facing with rising unemployment and violent demonstrations. In Yemen, even though President Ali Abdulah Salleh has ceded power, the political future of the country is down with fierce clashes between Saleh loyalists and opposition parties not subsiding. In Egypt, the economy is in serious trouble, political parties are bogged down in disputes over a new constitution and clashes are taking place every day. The new Libyan government is locked in disputes over power sharing, restoring law and order, reconstructing devastated cities, reinstating soldiers and disarming militias. One year has passed and demonstrations demanding democracy and regime change continue changing the balance of power and re-shaping geopolitics in the Middle East.

Doan Trung