On January 20, Iran said at least four of its senior advisers were killed in a missile attack on capital Damascus, Syria. Tehran suspected the raid was related to Israel and vowed to retaliate.

Tension escalates

A few hours after the Damascus airstrike, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack occurred in the port city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, killing two people, believed to be members of the Herzbollah force. The Israeli military was also accused of being behind the attack.

Also on January 20, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that militants in Iraq, believed to be backed by Iran, fired missiles and rockets on the US’s al-Asad air base, injuring some American soldiers.

In the Red Sea, the US-UK coalition forces have continued air strikes on the Houthi forces in Yemen. In response, the Houthis attacked and damaged the Greek-flagged cargo ship Zografia on January 16 and continuously targeted military ships of the US and UK.

These developments put the Gaza conflict at risk of spreading out of control. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland last week, the Middle East crisis was one of the most intense topics of discussion, where many officials of Arab countries sent strong messages demanding Western countries to put pressure on Israel to end the Gaza conflict before it is too late.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud said that regional tension has reached an extremely dangerous level and the key point still lies in Gaza, not in the Red Sea.

“We need to focus on the war in Gaza, not because of the Red Sea, but because of its impact on the Palestinian state and regional security in general and on the risk that it poses for further escalation,” said the Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister.

The escalation of missile attacks has cast shadow on political-diplomatic solutions. After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement on January 19 that his government opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state, the peace process in the Middle East would fall into a deadlock.

At the WEF 2024, Saudi Arabia’s officials repeatedly said that there will be no normalization of relations with Israel until the Gaza conflict ends and the two-state solution is implemented. A majority of Israel's Western allies also do not support Israel's tough stance.

EU High Representative for Security and Foreign Policy Josep Borrell said, “I know they have a different stand. The Secretary-General of the United Nations knows also. And he answered yesterday in very concrete terms, saying that it is unacceptable to say “I do not want this solution”, because this is a solution that has been approved by the United Nations, and the whole international community is behind it.”

Possibility of new conflict

While the Gaza conflict begins to spread to the region, tension between Iran and Pakistan could push the entire Middle East-South Asia region into more chaos. On January 16, the Iranian army launched a sudden missile and UAV attack on a number of targets in Pakistan's Balochistan province with the explanation that it targeted the anti-Iranian rebel group Jaish al-Adl hidden there. Two days later, Pakistan fired missiles on Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province, for what Pakistan says is to destroy hostile separatist groups.

Exchange of attacks between Iran and Pakistan on each other’s territories surprised observers who fear conflict escalation will leave extremely serious consequences as both Iran and Pakistan are regional military powers with considerable conventional armed forces.

Abdullah Khan, an expert from the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies, said that recent response from Iran shows that Iran may not again do any kind of operations inside Pakistan. "But we can not rule out anything. Something can happen," he added.

Experts said that at this time both Iran and Pakistan are facing many domestic problems as well as great external security pressure, so it would not be beneficial if the conflict worsens.

According to Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the US Brookings Institute, the biggest regional security concern is the Gaza conflict, Red Sea escalation and the risk of a conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.