(VOVWORLD) - HSBC has raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth this year to 6.5%, as compared with the previous projection of 6%, following the country's better-than-expected performance in the first half.
 Inside a factory of Dai Dung Trade, Construction, Mechanics Company in An Ha Industrial Park, Binh Chanh district, Ho Chi Minh city (File photo: Thanh Vu/VNA) |
The update comes from the bank's global research department in its recent "Vietnam at a Glance" report. Yun Liu, ASEAN economist at HSBC Global Research, noted that Vietnam's GDP grew 6.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, nearly the highest level in two years and significantly surpassing HSBC’s expectation of 6%. The slight rise in the first quarter brought the first half growth to 6.4% compared to the same period last year.
HSBC's analysis noted that the progress in the manufacturing sector was the most surprising, growing by 10% year-on-year. This was reflected in strong export growth in the second quarter, which reached 15% year-on-year.
The business sentiment among the manufacturers has visibly improved. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June surged to 54.7, the highest in two years.
In addition to trade, tourism-related services have maintained a positive trajectory. In the first half alone, Vietnam attracted over 8.8 million visitors, surpassing the total logged in all of 2019. Even without the visa exemption mechanism, the number of returning Chinese tourists has reached 80% compared to 2019.
HSBC's upward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 6.5% suggests that Vietnam could become the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN in 2024, a position it temporarily ceded to Malaysia in 2022 and the Philippines in 2023, according to Yun Liu.