In 2023, challenges are forecast to outweigh advantages mixed with hope. (Photo: Reuters)

Key factors that could shape the world in 2023

The world will enter the new year 2023 with lingering concern about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since February 24, 2022, the conflict has been disrupting global supply chains causing energy and food prices to skyrocket and triggering inflation and recession in many economies. International relations are experiencing a profound restructuring. The US, Europe, and their allies have imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia, pushing Russia-Western relations toward the most dangerous confrontation since World War II.

With the West’s deeper engagement, the next course of this crisis will determine the state of relations between Russia and the West in 2023. Until parties negotiate a peace agreement, the conflict will continue to wreak havoc on the global supply of energy, food, and fertilizer, hampering inflation control and economic recovery.

The world in 2023 may be determined by potential armed conflict and insecurity in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Palestine-Israel), Africa (Libya, Yemen) and Asia.

Geostrategic rivalry is forecast to continue in 2023. Even if armed conflict is avoided,  competition between the major powers will still affect investment flows, global trade, and the structure of international relations.

Another risk is the COVID-19 and the possibility of new coronavirus variants. Given widespread vaccine coverage and improving health systems, new epidemic waves, if they occur, are not as worrisome as in the past.

Extreme weather – floods, droughts, and abnormal heat waves – are forecast to continue causing great loss of life and property in many places, and impacting the livelihoods of millions of people.

Solution and hope

Vulnerable countries and communities are advised to relocate their resources and adopt more appropriate solutions to minimize adverse impacts. The first priority is economic recovery and growth with sufficient energy supply for production and social stability. Countries should prevent COVID-19 from re-emerging and prepare for a possible new pandemic, step up efforts to withstand natural disasters, and persist in sustainable development and climate change adaptation.

In the face of these challenges, the need for cooperation and connection is more urgent. Multilateral institutions, like the UN and the Security Council, must contribute more effectively to crisis management and socio-economic development on a global scale. There’s hope that negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be viable, so that millions of innocent people will no longer suffer and a peaceful environment for economic development and international cooperation can be created.

In the final days of 2022, there are reasons for hope. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Pope Francis, and other world leaders have sent New Year's messages of peace and prosperity to all countries around the world for 2023.