Q: What do you think were the factors behind the Democrats' success in winning back control of both chambers of Congress?
Mr. Hai: The latest media reports show that the Democrats won 240 to147 seats occupied by the Republican in the House, and 54 to 44 Republican in the Senate. This is an excessively expected win for the Democrats and represents the majority of American voters’ disapproval of President Trump and his party’s performance in the last two years. There were various factors behind the Democrats’ success or alternatively and more precisely the Republican’s loss.
The first factor was the economy’s poor performance and the rise of the cost of living. Before the election, three-quarters of voters rated the economy negatively, and almost 7 in 10 of them voted Democratic. In Fox’s poll, voters blamed tariffs, inflation and the Iran conflict for pushing costs, including the price of gasoline, higher.
The second factor was President Trump’s creditability. This election is like the vote of confidence in President Trump. Even though by law President Trump’s name wasn’t on the ballot, about 60% of voters said he was a factor in their House vote. 62% disapproved of his job performance, a lower midterm showing than any recent president since President Harry Truman in 1946. His unpopularity also reached red states, where high disapproval helped Democrats flip several key Senate seats.
The third factor was the Iran conflict. The majority of American voters disagreed with the conflict, which apparently was the major cause pushing the rise of the energy prices in the US and globally. Even many Republicans pointed to it, and Vice President Vance blamed the ongoing conflict for the party’s losses.
The fourth factor was the backfire of voters, especially Hispanic and young voters, who turned their back to President Trump as for them President Trump betrayed their support and broke his promise in 2024. President Trump executed an aggressive deportation program, leading to a great volume of immigrants from Latin American countries forced to leave the US.
Other factors that also contributed to voters’ disapproval of President Trump included concerns about democratic decline, cuts in education and science, tea and crony corruption.
Q: With Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate, how will this change the political balance in Washington and President Trump's ability to advance his agenda during the remaining two years of his term?
Mr. Hai: With the landslide win of the Democrats, controlling both chambers in the Congress, apparently it shifts the balance of power in Washington substantially when the Democrat-dominated Congress formally begins in January 2027. We can foresee that President Trump’s legislative agenda will mostly stall, though as the president he keeps a lot of executive power.
It should be worthwhile to note that between now and when the Democrats formally take over the Congress, which is scheduled on Jan. 3, 2027, the Republicans still run the Congress. Hence, the outgoing Republican Congress and the Trump administration will take the race against time to deal with government funding and any pending nominations before the power handover. It would be no surprise if the administration worked closely with the current Congress to confirm as many nominees as possible before January 3.
When all the dust settles, we will see how power will be played by both sides. The political division in the American politics, and the profound rift between the Democrats and President Trump will feature one of the most political shows to watch in the run up to the 2008 presidential election.
Apparently, Democrats will control whatever reaches Trump’s desk, and any major Democratic legislation passed by both chambers would still require Trump’s signature. President Trump has signalled that he will veto all the bills that he called insane passed by the Democrats. Trump’s vetoing is not the end of the story as the bill still can go into effect if the Democrats gather enough votes in the House afterward, but the possibility is very thin as the Republicans will not stand with the Democrats. Furthermore, it is a fact that bills also face the Senate filibuster, and Democrats are almost certain to fall short of 60 votes. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of both chambers.
Democrats gain leverage through the budget. Congress controls government appropriations, so spending fights, including over defense and military operations, become negotiations. The nominated Democrat Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries from New York has named four priorities: reversing Trump’s Medicaid cuts, extending the ACA credits, restoring congressional authority over tariffs and stopping the Iran conflict. Each would need Trump’s signature or enough Republican votes to override him.
Another challenge to President Trump’s agenda is the Democrats’ block of any nominations, which will be probably the biggest change. Democrats can now block Cabinet, judicial and ambassadorial picks. There is a speculation of a possible Supreme Court vacancy, which would be hard to it if a replacement could not be done during the “lame-duck” session.
The independence of power established by the Constitution allows President Trump to retain extensive unilateral executive authority, including tariffs, much of foreign policy and executive orders. That’s being said, Democratic control will not automatically reverse his executive actions. He can also still fire Cabinet members. Trump said he wouldn’t bend on border policy or transgender issues. So, in short, there will be a tug of war between the Democrat-dominated Congress and the Trump administration in the next two years, and there will be more disruptions in public services due to possible closing of the government resulting from unsettled negotiations of public funding.
Q: Could the change in congressional control lead to adjustments in US foreign policy, particularly on trade, tariffs, immigration and the country's military engagements overseas?
Mr. Hai: Theoretically, yes, but in practice it will be mostly at the margins, given that though Democrats control money, President Trump has independent constitutional or delegated authority. For instance, in the field of trade and tariffs, Democrats can’t repeal existing tariffs over a veto. They can pressure through oversight, spending riders, and refusing to extend temporary authorities, which is how Section 122 lapsed. Courts remain the main check.
Another foreign policy issue is the conflict with Iran. By the constitution, the Congress has the most direct authority of intervention, but the White House has shown it will push back. Both chambers recently passed a war powers resolution. The Senate approved it after the House, with a handful of Republicans joining nearly all Democrats. Yet US operations, including a maritime blockade, continue, and the administration maintains the president can order military action under his own constitutional powers. There are voices from the Democrats that with the White House ignoring war powers votes, they intend to amend the War Powers Act to trigger an automatic funding cutoff after 60 days without congressional authorization.
Overall, Democrats can plausibly slow or complicate Trump’s agenda through investigations, delayed funding, and confirmation fights, but they are unlikely to reverse core policies without enough Republican votes to override vetoes.
The international community should not be too naïve to believe that there will be a 180-degree turn-around of the US foreign policy, because there might be disagreements between the two parties but they remain committed to protect their national interests. There is an unwritten rule in the American politics that foreign policy, especially military action and trade negotiations, needs a single decision-maker and that congressional constraints would weaken US leverage abroad.
Democrats and some Republicans counter that war and tariffs are powers the Constitution assigns to Congress, but how this plays out will depend heavily on whether the Iran conflict is still going when the new Congress arrives and the interests of American farmers and workers are protected.
