The trilateral talks on Wednesday and Thursday in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, were attended by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, and Russia’s military intelligence chief Admiral Igor Kostyukov.

Small steps forward

Prior to the talks, there were some expectations that they might achieve a breakthrough to end the nearly four-year-long conflict, as Russia and Ukraine for the first time formed a separate working group on military issues, alongside the group discussing political issues.

The military group discussed scenarios for a future ceasefire-monitoring mission, the implementation of a ceasefire, and the establishment of a center to oversee and coordinate ceasefire-related issues and select countries to such a mechanism.

However, after two days of talks in Abu Dhabi, the hoped-for results failed to materialize. The political group remained deeply divided over each side’s demands regarding territorial issues and Ukraine’s political and security future. The military group offered no possibility of even a temporary ceasefire.

The most concrete outcome was an agreement to exchange 314 prisoners, the first such agreement in five months. The three countries agreed to hold a third round of talks soon, likely in the United States within a week or two.

While expressing optimism that the parties will continue negotiations toward an agreement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said major differences between Russia and Ukraine have shown no signs of narrowing.

“If you look at the checklist of open items that existed at this time last year, and the checklist of open items that remain now in terms of reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, that list has been substantially diminished. That's the good news. The bad news is that the items that remain are the most difficult ones. Meanwhile, the war continues,” said Rubio.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that the Abu Dhabi talks were “not easy,” and Kyiv wants to see faster progress toward ending the conflict.

Meanwhile, the Russian President’s Special Envoy and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev said the talks had shown positive signals, but criticized factors hindering the process, implicitly pointing to certain EU countries’ hardline positions.

Dialogue to reduce tensions

While the effort to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict failed, US-Russia bilateral relations showed some positive signals. The participation of US Secretary of the Army Daniel P. Driscoll and Commander of US Army Europe Alexus Grynkewich permitted direct discussions between US and Russian military officials.

On Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the US and Russia have agreed to re-establish a high-level military dialogue, just hours after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired. The US said the agreement to resume a military dialogue, which was suspended in 2021, followed “effective and constructive progress” at the Abu Dhabi talks.

The United States European Command  said in a statement that this dialogue is crucial for maintaining global stability, reducing the risk of escalation, and enhancing transparency.

Experts say the resumption of a high-level military dialogue between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, instead of relying on emergency communication lines, is of great significance for controlling the arms race and for global strategic stability.

“We're at the point now where the two sides could, with the expiration of this treaty, for the first time in about 35 years, increase the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed on each side. And this would open up the possibility of an unconstrained, dangerous three-way arms race, not just between the US and Russia, but also involving China,” said Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director of the US-based Arms Control Association.

Observers believe the resumption of a high-level US-Russia military dialogue is a necessary condition for negotiating a new agreement to replace New START. President Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday that the US will not agree to extending New START, but will study a new, more modern and sustainable nuclear arms control treaty.

In recent years, the US administration has consistently argued that any new nuclear arms treaty must include the full participation of China, believed to possess the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. China has repeatedly rejected the idea and Russia has not insisted on China’s participation.