Strong exports ahead of the US reciprocal tariff adjustments, expansionary policies, and sustained investment supported Vietnam’s solid economic growth last year. However, changing US trade measures, the Middle East conflict, and global uncertainties could curb exports and investment inflows, dimming this year’s outlook.
“The Government of Vietnam responded swiftly to the energy supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East,” said ADB Country Director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty. “Time-bound fiscal measures, including tax relief, use of the stabilization fund, combined with flexible price adjustments and stronger supply coordination, have helped contain near-term inflationary pressures and support growth,” he said. Over the longer term, improving efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and accelerating the transition to clean energy will be critical to reducing vulnerability to future shocks, Chakraborty added.
At the press conference, Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist of the ADB in Vietnam, said growth in 2026 will be driven by increased public investment and the implementation of an accommodative monetary policy.
Although FDI and exports will remain the main drivers of growth, external challenges, including conflicts in the Middle East and US tariff policies, may affect investment flows and export activities. Inflation is projected to rise to 4% in 2026 before easing to 3.8% in 2027.
