From the first quarter’s performance, it’s possible to extrapolate opportunities, challenges, and necessary conditions for the economy to accelerate in the coming quarters.
Bright spots for the economy
Since the beginning of the year, the world has experienced geopolitical conflicts and volatile energy prices. In that context, achieving a growth rate of nearly 8% in Q1 demonstrates the resilience and adaptability of Vietnam’s economy. Growth continued to come from exports, domestic consumption, public investment, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Disbursed FDI reached its highest level in 5 years, demonstrating the attractiveness of Vietnam’s investment environment, particularly in the processing and manufacturing industries.
Growing consumer demand and an increase in international visitors to Vietnam have spurred growth of trade and services. Vietnam welcomed 6.76 million international arrivals, up 12.4% year on year and the highest first-quarter figure ever recorded.
Vietnam has made a relatively strong start, but it’s not yet sufficient to guarantee the target of double-digit growth. The remaining quarters will need to achieve even higher growth rates, 10% or more, to meet the target. This will require stronger efforts to boost existing growth drivers while tapping into new potential areas.
Newly appointed Prime Minister Le Minh Hung said in his inaugural speech on Tuesday: “The goal of achieving an average GDP growth rate of over 10% per year for the 2026–2031 period is a development imperative to realize the country’s strategic goals. The Government identifies the development of science and technology, innovation, and national digital transformation as key breakthroughs and primary drivers to rapidly develop modern production forces, enhance productivity, competitiveness, and strategic autonomy, and create new growth momentum.”
Reaching the growth target
To realize its goal, Vietnam is focusing on key strategic policies, including institutional reform, development of strategic infrastructure, innovation, digital transformation, green transition, and improving human resource quality. These policies aim to restructure the economy and shift the growth model toward productivity and science and technology, rather than relying solely on capital and low-cost labor. The development of strategic industries, the digital economy, and the green economy will open up new growth spaces.
Associate Professor Dr. Vu Thanh Huong, Deputy Head of the Faculty of International Economics and Business at the University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, said: “First, we need to continue strengthening production capacity and developing support industries. Second, technological proactiveness is crucial. When we apply technology and innovation to our products, their added value increases in global markets, thereby boosting profits and improving incomes for workers.”
At the same time, the business sector, especially private enterprises, should be further supported to grow. Deputy Minister of Finance Cao Anh Tuan said that facing increasingly intense global competition, the internal capacity of enterprises is the decisive factor for the economy’s momentum. “The double-digit growth target requires speed and transformation of the development model and national competitiveness improvement. This economic task is also a strategic mission for Vietnam to escape the middle-income trap and realize the aspiration of becoming a high-income developed nation by 2045. In this process, enterprises must play a pioneering role in innovation and shaping Vietnam’s position in the global economy,” said Mr. Tuan.
Another important driver is domestic consumption. With a large population and a growing middle class, the domestic market holds significant potential. Appropriate stimulus policies and stable incomes and employment will help sustain consumption growth. The road ahead presents pressures but also many opportunities. If growth drivers are effectively leveraged, the business environment is significantly improved, and internal capacities are strengthened, the double-digit growth target for this year is entirely achievable.
